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1

Friday, April 18th 2014, 6:33pm

chances of +20 vs tier of to-be-plused item

Someone on another forum says the following:

He was trying to plus four weapons.
* t11, start at +18; while plusing it has fallen down to +14 and then with troubles back up; at the end he stopped at +19; 26 or 28 pluses spent;
* t4, start at +16; with 12 or 14 pluses went all the way to +20 (never falling bellow +17);
* t4, start at +16; went to +20 with just 4 pluses; not a single fail;
* t11, start at +17; ups and downs; at the end he stopped at +19 without even trying to go up because of small number of stones left;


So his impression was that plusing not-tiered weapons goes much, much better; getting a t11 weapon to +20 will on the other hand be really expensive. And look: he did _not_ have a single +19 => +20 success for t11 weapons (although to make it clear: most of the 28 plusses in the first case were spend not at this step - it was _not_ like trying +19 => +20 28 times :P ).

Anyway, I still haven't started using my +20 pluses and I don't have that many of them. It might actually be cheaper to ditch my current t11 dagger, and start with a new one, plusing it first...

But: it's just an impression of this guy based on him spending about 50 pluses. It's the best experimental data I have seen so far :D but I would not call it proper statistics... (If he got lucky in going from +19 to +20 by accident for the t4 weapons, obviously he was not continuing just to test statistics. :P It's just two cases where going from +19 to +20 went relatively fast and maybe it's just by accident that it happened for both t4 weapons.)

So I want to ask if you guys had a chance to compare. Has anyone tried to plus a t4 weapon to +20? How did it go? How did it go for a t11?
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2

Friday, April 18th 2014, 7:08pm

Plussed my T11 Hoson's Staff from +16 to +20 and it only took 6 total plussers and never fell below +18

The staff was already T11 and it went 17 > 18 > 19 > 18 > 19 > 20

I'm sure there's others out there on Govinda, but aside from myself and one other individual, idk anyone else who got their weapon to +20,

He, however, plussed his at T4 (or T5, whatever his base was..I forget what a Sando's Claw starts at) and it apparently took several, SEVERAL more plussers than mine took.



So basically I don't think it matters what tier your weapon is when you start trying to plus it to 20..or plussing to anything for that matter.. its all RNG I believe
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This post has been edited 2 times, last edit by "acypcar90" (Apr 18th 2014, 7:17pm)


camagic

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3

Friday, April 18th 2014, 7:47pm

Things that affect plussing:
rarity(white, green, blue, purple, orange, brown)
OD/UD(hammered UD is more likely to fail than plain UD)
tier
current plus level
the total stat quality(6 lvl I stats is easier than one lvl VII stat)
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4

Friday, April 18th 2014, 7:53pm

Plussing conspiracy theories gotta love them.
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5

Friday, April 18th 2014, 8:47pm

My success rates on 2 recently plussed items:

1. My natural OD ring, unstatted, untiered, got 3 fails in a row before I stopped.

2. On the other hand, my natural OD boots, also unstatted/untiered went up to +12 with 1 fail (and 1 perfect from +5 to +6).

So no, I don't think the fail rate depends on any modification of gear. I could use #1 as experimental proof that un-modified gear fails as much as the tiered gear OP mentioned. Or, I could have only told you #2, and use that as experimental proof that the tiered gear OP mentioned does in fact fail more than un-modded gear.
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6

Friday, April 18th 2014, 10:17pm

Plussing conspiracy theories gotta love them.

If you stand at 86.1 23.5 in varanas between the time of 1am pst and 4am pst with the item you want to + and also 4 more items that are only +10 and t4 with strictly stats lower than DoD but higher than Clops, you will have a success rate of 78.5 %. I know this because I have done it everyday for the last year just to get 1 item to +16, oh that's the clause you have to + everyday and on the 365th day you gain the +16.


Oh and you have to get +3 on the +10 items only using the NPC gems or the entire process wont work, so good luck and happy plussing!
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7

Friday, April 18th 2014, 10:59pm

random is random is random
took me 10 on my t12 od sandos to get 20

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8

Friday, April 18th 2014, 11:34pm

Well i made a 85 crafted pair of gloves for my mage, +1 to +18 without a miss, then did her earrings and took me 30 jewels total to get to +17.

Best thing to plus, get into your house, wear your favorite pyjamas, no t-shirt, sit down in your chair, spin 3 times left and 5 times right, while not facing the screen, then with your right foot, click the mouse to start the plussing procedure, then move to your left hand and hover it over the keyboard, then with your left foot squeeze your right ear and voila!!! no misses anymore!!!!

Or else just go with whatever randomness settings Gameforge put on it and hope for the worse and expect even less loll ;-)

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9

Saturday, April 19th 2014, 3:10am

Best thing to plus, get into your house, wear your favorite pyjamas, no t-shirt, sit down in your chair, spin 3 times left and 5 times right, while not facing the screen, then with your right foot, click the mouse to start the plussing procedure, then move to your left hand and hover it over the keyboard, then with your left foot squeeze your right ear and voila!!! no misses anymore!!!!

LOL somehow Zid you've managed to figure out my plussing ritual.... >.> Don't ask me how you managed to do it. But you did!
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10

Tuesday, April 22nd 2014, 1:02pm

Well, if you put 71 random words in a random order you have a fair chance of getting exactly the description of your plusing ritual, I guess. :D

Ok, good, so no correlation between tier and chances of success. I guess the UD/OD was also a troll, right? (you would not have a chance to compare really - we almost exclusively plus overdura, don't we)

I wonder about lvl 80 pluses vs lvl 90 pluses used on less-than-lvl-80 items: I guess the data would be scarce 'cause everyone would use up their lvl 80 pluses first so no good way to compare...

The only rule that is there is that quite often success/fail comes in a series: a good advice worded already many times was: if your plusing fails twice in a row - stop and try again tomorrow.

Spoiler Spoiler

Sounds silly, but the thing is that this suggestion may actually have a reasonable basis.

It's not how it works, but just imagine that someone would implement a "random" algorithm by taking an accidental piece in your computer memory, and then doing step-by-step what the bytes say. Overall if you sum all up you may get fairly random total distribution with expected average. But in one particular experiment: you might actually get into e.g. a piece of graphics memory and if you go byte-by-byte you might actually get green-green-green-green-green-green-green-red-red-red...

It's just a silly example to show that in the case of computers random is not random. Now, hopefully the algorithm in RoM is not _that_ stupid, but the point is: the fact that it's "overall random" and that the "average is what was required/expected" says nothing about correlation of subsequent events and dispersion of the probability bell.

The advice about the failures/successes coming in series may have a point actually.


Anyway - thanks for your input!
>>>> >>>> >>>>
>>>>
>>>> Please, bring back (bound if there is no other option) dias to AH! :thumbsup:
>>>> If you do this we will all love you forever. ;)
>>>>
>>>> >>>> >>>>

11

Tuesday, April 22nd 2014, 10:08pm

only thing I have ever noticed, with everything on luck with this game. Some days for some characters seem to get stuck on lucky or unlucky. On days I am doing lucky on a char.. I keep using it for everything, stat pulls etc. On days I start to see bad luck.. I stop and try again the next day.

12

Wednesday, April 23rd 2014, 1:34pm

I purchased weapon plusers last night to plus my level 70 wand it is tier 4 and its +3. I purchased 10 and ended up at +2 when I finished, I purchase a 2nd 10, and ended up at +3 when they were done. I purchased another 10 and ended up at +2, and then another 10 and ended at +3 and gave up.
during all of these tries I never ended up higher then +5 or lower than +1
there has to be a secret to these items.

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13

Wednesday, April 23rd 2014, 1:50pm

DC, I would not waste any diamonds past +4, you should have the rubies to buy perfect +6s after spending all that.

I use 2 +6 perfects after I reach +4. Why? because +6 is hard to obtain with regular plussers. Luckily the chance of +12 and +16 are better once you get up there.
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14

Wednesday, April 23rd 2014, 3:45pm

most of the time ill push to +5 cause the gems can be bought for p tokens at a decent rate. but +6 is always ruby gems.